WX in text

798
FXUS61 KBUF 101058
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
558 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will pass across Lake Erie and the northern
shoreline of Lake Ontario today, spreading initial widespread snow
that will mix with and change to plain rain through the morning for
all areas except for hill tops. Behind a cold front this early
evening precipitation will change back to all snow with west to
northwest winds creating some blowing and drifting to the snow with
reduced visibilities. As cold air deepens over the eastern Great
Lakes, bands of accumulating lake effect snow will continue Thursday
and Thursday night southeast of the Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This early morning an area of low pressure is found over southern
Michigan, with widespread snow inching into our region from OH/PA.
Upstream observations display a quick transition over to rain across
OH, especially near Lake Erie, and expect that trend to continue for
our region, with areas near the Lake Erie shoreline quickly changing
over to plain rain...with the Lake Plain and downstream lower
elevations to follow.

Have left the current winter headlines as is, with greater snowfall
accumulations today east of Lake Ontario where a slightly deeper
cold airmass and upslope enhanced snow will accumulate a half foot
or greater through the day today on the Tug Hill and western
Adirondack foothills. Snow today across WNY will favor the hill tops
as well though, with lower snow ratios than the eastern Lake Ontario
region and less precipitation, snowfall totals will be less, within
advisory ranges across the hill tops today.

Elsewhere what little snow that does accumulate will quickly end
with the transition to rain.

Still some gusty southwesterly winds today, but with the models
converging on a storm depth that is not as great as previous model
runs and core of the LLJ remaining to our south these gusts will
generally range in the 20-35 mph range.

This early evening a cold front will sweep across the region sending
mixed precipitation back to all snow. Still favorable for snow
accumulation across the hill tops...including now the hills of WNY
on an upslope west to northwest flow, while lower elevations will
have just a half to one inch of fresh snow along the passage of the
cold front. Winds, now from the west to northwest will still be
gusty in the 20-35 mph range and with the snow ratios increasing,
this will allow for a bit more blowing and drifting to the falling
snow.

Lake effect snowbands will develop, but still a bit of
shear at first likely to leave what bands that develop on the weaker
side through Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another reinforcing shot of colder air and deeper moisture will help
reinvigorate lake effect/upslope snows Thursday in the wake of the
cold frontal passage, keeping this long-duration event going. A
gusty west to northwest flow will direct lake effect plumes east and
southeast of the lakes. Moderate to locally heavy accumulations
still look possible with the highest accumulations off Lake Erie
across southern Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties, with
lighter accumulations over WNW-NW flow upslope favored areas...while
off Lake Ontario the highest accumulations are expected across Wayne
and northern Cayuga counties, with upslope snow across Tug Hill
helping produce moderate accumulations there.

Off Lake Erie...heaviest snow is expected to fall Thursday into the
first half of Thursday night as deeper moisture and colder air aloft
raise equilibrium levels to around 10K feet, with strong lift within
a saturated DGZ and an upstream connection to Lake Huron becoming
established. West-northwest flow will direct the heaviest snow
across far southern Erie, far northern Chautauqua, and northern
Cattaraugus counties where up an additional 8-11 inches is possible
during this time. Expect moderate upslope snows across the remainder
of the Chautauqua Ridge with an additional 4-6 inches possible. Lake
snows will weaken as mid level moisture is stripped away (lowering
equilibrium heights) second half of Thursday night with just
additional nuisance snow amounts through Friday.

Off Lake Ontario...heaviest snow is expected to fall Thursday into
the first half of Thursday night here as well with similar
conditions to Lake Erie aloft. Main difference is a bit weaker
upstream connection to Georgian Bay, however more west-northwest
flow residency time over the lake will help balance out some of this
deficiency. West-northwest flow will direct the heaviest snow across
Wayne and northern Cayuga counties with 7-9 inches possible in the
Watch area. With continued marginal warning criteria, have elected
to keep the Winter Storm Watch in place at this time. Moderate
accumulations also expected across the Tug where upslope snows may
produce an additional 3-6 inches. Lake snows will weaken as mid
level moisture is stripped away (lowering equilibrium heights)
second half of Thursday night. Winds back to westerly on Friday with
lake effect snow re-developing across central Oswego County during
the morning hours then shifting slowly northward across northern
Oswego County Friday afternoon/evening with a few to several inches
possible there. Inland extent looks somewhat limited.

Temperatures will plunge back below average with daytime highs on
Thursday some 10 to 15 degrees below average. Highs Friday will be
around 5 degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds will continue to back Friday night ahead of another Clipper
system with lake snow east of Lake Ontario weakening while pushing
northward into Jefferson County. An inch or so of accumulation
possible there.

Otherwise, the active pattern will continue this weekend into early
next week. The next deep upper level trough which will dig southeast
over the lower Great Lakes and Northeast through the weekend. This
will result in another round of synoptic snow for the area sometime
between late Friday night and Saturday, with a very deep cold
airmass wrapping around the main low causing additional lake effect
snow to continue downwind of the lakes into at least early next
week. Surface temperatures will continue to run well below normal,
especially Sunday and Monday, though long range guidance is in
fairly good agreement on some degree of warming with the lake
response weakening Tuesday into mid week. Still a high amount of
uncertainty in the details at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS IFR flight conditions in widespread, light snow
are starting the period for our region, with only modest
improvements in the visibility today as snow mixes with and
changes to rain. A change over to rain this afternoon for the
lower elevation sites, but higher terrain (KJHW) will have a
narrower window for rain.

Winds today will be breezy from the southwest into the 20 knot
range...and possibly lower 30 knot range downwind of Lake Erie for
KBUF/KIAG.

A cold front will sweep across the TAF sites between 22Z - 04Z and
winds will veer to west and northwesterly, while still remaining
breezy. Cold air advection behind this front will change mixed
precipitation back to all snow by the end of the TAF cycle. IFR in
snow...becoming lake effect snow through the remainder of the night.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow
showers. Areas of heavier lake effect snow with IFR/LIFR southeast
of the lakes. Terminals most likely impacted will be KJHW and KROC.

Friday and Saturday...MVFR/IFR east of the lakes with snow showers
likely. MVFR/VFR outside the main lake effect areas.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR with widespread snow likely.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of low pressure will advance across Lake Erie and the
northern shoreline of Lake Ontario today. Model trends are not as
deep with this area of low pressure, with the stronger LLJ remaining
to our south. Will continue the gale warning on Lake Erie for brief
periods of gale force winds today, with small craft advisories
elsewhere.

Behind a cold front this early evening southwest winds will veer to
west to northwesterly. This will maintain an extended period of
small craft conditions on the Lakes, with the strongest flow nearing
gale force late tonight and Thursday on the southeast end of Lake
Ontario. For which a gale watch has been hoisted with this product
issuance.

A persistent west to northwesterly flow will remain through much of
the remainder of this week (post gale watch) with small craft
conditions on both Lakes right through the week...if not through the
weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning
     for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM
         EST Friday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ043>045.
         Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
         LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/PP
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion