WX in text

126
FXUS61 KBUF 170644
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
We can expect milder temperatures the next couple of days as
progressively warmer air overspreads our region on the backside of
departing high pressure...with most areas seeing readings climbing
into the mid to upper 30s Wednesday, and then well into the 40s
Thursday. A weak cold front passing through the region Wednesday
will yield a few light rain or snow showers, especially east of Lake
Ontario. It will also become windy within this warming airmass, with
gusty winds this morning...followed by a period of stronger gusts
Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region today.
Low pressure near James Bay this morning will move northeast, while
an associated cold front approaches the region. A southwest flow has
allowed a milder airmass to move into the region early this morning,
and will result in temperatures reaching the upper 30s, mid 30s
across the higher terrain today. The main story this morning will be
strong, gusty winds across the Niagara Frontier. A 40-50 knot low
level jet is expected to mix down to the surface as a weak front
moves across the region. Lapse rates aren`t all that great, however
forecast soundings show strengthening lapse rates as the front
crosses the region. This will be a short period of wind gusts of 45-
50mph across the Niagara Frontier and Wyoming county this morning.
Weaker lapse rates reside elsewhere across the forecast area, and
wind gusts 25 to 35 mph are expected this morning. The strong low-
level jet will move east of the region through today, and winds will
diminish through the afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
Niagara, Erie, Orleans, Genesee, and Wyoming counties through 1PM.
Low-level moisture will increase along the weak front, with the
greater chance of light rain and snow showers east of Lake Ontario
today. A coating of snow is possible on the Tug Hill. A few
sprinkles are possible south of Buffalo this morning.

The main cold front will stall out to our north as surface high
pressure builds into the region tonight. Warm air advection will
move back into the region tonight. Temperatures will fall the first
half of the night, before rising into Thursday morning. Lows will
reach the teens to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Strong low pressure will move from near Lake Superior Thursday to
northern Quebec by Friday, with a strong trailing cold front
crossing the eastern Great Lakes early Friday morning.

Thursday will be mainly dry and warm with strengthening southerly
flow ahead of the system. Temperatures will soar well into the 40s
areawide, with low 50s possible on the lake plains of Western NY
with an added boost of downslope flow. Model guidance continues to
slow the eastward progression of this system, so rain should hold
off until after sunset.

Thursday night, rain will develop from west to east ahead of the
advancing cold front. Rainfall amounts will likely be 0.25" to 0.50"
across most of the area. A plume of gulf moisture advecting north
ahead of the system will begin to interact with strong forcing ahead
of the sharp mid level trough and surface cold front by late
Thursday night and Friday morning, enhancing rainfall totals east of
Lake Ontario, with around 1.0" likely across the Tug Hill region.

Much colder air will pour back into the eastern Great Lakes Friday.
A mid level dry slot immediately behind the surface cold front will
be replaced by deeper wrap around moisture, which will support a few
snow showers areawide. The airmass will grow cold enough to support
a lake response by late morning or early afternoon, with a brief
period of lake effect snow east of the lakes. Initial development
may be on WSW flow near Buffalo and Watertown, with winds veering
westerly and carrying bands of snow southward into the Southern Tier
and Tug Hill regions later in the day. The lake effect setup is very
brief, with warm advection and lowering inversion heights quickly
ending the lake response later Friday night. The brief setup may
support light to borderline moderate accumulations across the higher
terrain east of Lake Erie, and the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario.

Perhaps the most impactful portion of this event will be the wind
potential. A powerful 70+ knot SSW low level jet in the warm sector
ahead of the cold front will propagate across the eastern Great
Lakes Thursday night. A stable boundary layer and poor low level
lapse rates will prevent full mixing, but the setup does favor
terrain forced wind.

Forecast BUFKIT soundings continue to show 55-65 knots just above
the terrain barriers, with a strong inversion near the ridge tops and
a flow direction with a significant vector component normal to the
Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill Plateau. This wind and thermodynamic
setup suggests the potential for a downslope windstorm to the lee of
the Chautauqua Ridge along the Lake Erie shore from later Thursday
afternoon through the first half of Thursday night. The same
potential exists on the north slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau and in
the Black River Valley Thursday night through early Friday morning.
The strongest downslope winds tend to occur when no precipitation is
falling, so expect the strongest wind gusts in these areas to occur
just ahead of the rain. Given the setup and similarities to past
downslope wind events, we have issued a High Wind Watch for
Chautauqua, Jefferson, and Lewis counties with the potential for
damaging 60+ mph gusts in localized downslope areas.

Elsewhere, expect a windy night, with 45-55 mph gusts possible
across much of the higher terrain areas from the Southern Tier into
the Finger Lakes where smaller scale downslope wind processes occur
off local ridges, and gap winds can occur in the north/south
oriented Finger Lakes valleys. It will be windy on the lake plains
as well, with gusts of 30-40 mph likely.

The second phase of this wind event will occur Friday. There may be
an initial surge of strong southwest winds immediately behind the
cold front northeast of Lake Erie. Otherwise, a lull in winds Friday
morning will give way to increasing westerly gusts in the afternoon
and evening as a secondary wind max of 40-45 knots in the boundary
layer crosses the area. This may produce near advisory gusts across
much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Zonal flow will quickly return Saturday as the sharp trough remains
progressive and advances into the Canadian Maritimes. Surface high
pressure will drift off the east coast, while a warm frontal segment
moves across the Great Lakes and brings a chance of a few rain or
wet snow showers later Saturday. The pattern will gradually amplify
again across North America Sunday through Monday, with a trough
developing over eastern Canada and adjacent areas of the Great Lakes
and New England. A cold front will move southeast across the eastern
Great Lakes early Sunday, followed by another brief push of colder
air that may support some minor lake effect snow showers southeast
of the lakes Sunday through early Monday.

The trough will advance east by Tuesday, with building heights and
warm advection bringing milder temperatures into the region. A
passing trough and surface wave may bring a few rain and/or wet snow
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions will continue across western and north-central
NY through the early morning hours. An area of low clouds continues
across the western Southern Tier including KJHW and east of Lake
Ontario including KART early this morning.

A southwest flow will increase ahead of a cold front, notably
across the Niagara Frontier where wind gusts up to 45 knots are
expected. The cold front will move across the region this
morning. Low-level moisture will increase from west to east and
ceilings will lower to MVFR across the region, with IFR across
the higher terrain. Drier air will move into the region tonight
and flight conditions will become VFR across the Buffalo/Niagara
Falls/Rochester and Watertown areas. MVFR/IFR will linger
across the western Southern Tier tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR with a chance of showers late. Increasing winds.

Thursday night...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR with rain developing from
west to east. Strong wind gusts, especially in downslope areas.

Friday...Rain changing to snow showers from west to east early.
MVFR/IFR improving to VFR/MVFR in most areas, with lake effect snow
showers bringing local IFR east of the lakes. Very windy.

Saturday and Sunday...MVFR/VFR in scattered light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A 980mb low near James Bay early this morning will move northeast
today. An associated cold front will approach the eastern Great
Lakes and move across the region later today, while a weaker front
crosses the Lakes this morning. A strong southwest flow ahead of
this system will produce high-end Small Craft Advisory conditions on
the eastern end of Lake Erie and the Upper Niagara River, and Gales
on Lake Ontario today. Winds will diminish across the region while
waves remain elevated this afternoon. Marine headlines will drop off
this evening with a light southerly wind continues overnight
tonight.

Another strong system will move north of the region Thursday through
Friday. Southerly winds will strengthen across the region Thursday,
before a cold front moves across the region Thursday night. A
southwest flow will increase with gales possible on both Lakes
Friday. Winds taper off Friday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ001-002-
     010>012-085.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     for NYZ007-008.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST this
         afternoon for LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/JJR/Thomas
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion