WX in text

946
FXUS61 KBUF 041826
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
126 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow with locally moderate snow accumulations, and gusty
winds producing areas of blowing and drifting snow continue this
afternoon before dissipating this evening. The coldest airmass of
the winter season arrives this evening leading to Friday morning
wind chills dropping near to below zero, especially across north-
central NY. Mainly dry weather will return by Friday as high
pressure briefly builds into the eastern Great Lakes ahead of our
next chance for snowfall Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered snow showers will continue through this afternoon east and
eventually southeast of Lake Ontario with a cold frontal passage
associated with a progressive upper level trough passing through the
Great Lakes and eastern Canada. These snow showers will gradually
dissipate through the evening. High pressure slides across the lower
Great Lakes into the northeast US Friday leading to dry conditions,
but cold weather will remain as high temperatures will remain below
the freezing mark for most. The next system with another round of
snow for much of western NY will begin to approach the region late
Friday night.

Lake Effect Snow Showers: Snowfall reports from this morning and
radar depictions have suggested snowfall rates of up to 1"/hr in the
most persistent bands, however more transient snow bands are
expected through the remainder of the day. Latest satellite imagery
and surface observations shows the frontal boundary approaching
southern shores of Lake Ontario. This has begun the transition of
lake snows shifting from east of the lake to southeast with winds
veering to the northwest. Marginal low-level frontogenesis is
present along with frictional convergence near the shoreline that
could support the development of a few bands of heavy snowfall and
gusty winds 30-40 mph will continue to reduce visibility with
blowing and drifting snow. Latest RAP forecast soundings suggests a
slight increase in ELs with the frontal passage before beginning to
collapse towards 5 kft this evening. Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect for portions of western and north-central NY
through late Thursday afternoon (east of Lake Erie) and early
Thursday evening (east of Lake Ontario).

Cold Temperatures: Behind the cold frontal passage Thursday, the
coldest airmass of the young winter slides overhead with 850mb temps
dropping between 18 and 20 degC below zero. These 850mb temps will
be near the lowest climatological percentile for early December.
With clearing skies in areas outside of lingering lake effect bands
and calming winds, Friday morning low temperatures will drop into
the lower teens for most with additional area dropping into the
single digits. Higher elevations of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill
will see temperatures near 0 degF. With calmer winds, wind chill
temperatures will only be a few degrees lower remaining higher than
Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday night low pressure will meander across
southern Hudson Bay...and in the process will slowly push its
trailing cold front eastward from the central Great Lakes and across
our region...with the front possibly being preceded by a weak
prefrontal trough during the day Saturday. Out ahead of these
features...a sheared south-southwesterly flow of just-marginally
cold enough air will allow weak lake effect snow showers to
initially develop north-northeast of the lakes during the first part
of Saturday morning...with the bands then shifting southward and
temporarily becoming a little better organized later Saturday
morning/Saturday afternoon in tandem with veering of the low-level
flow and a commensurate increase in fetch across the lakes...some
gradual cooling aloft...and a brief uptick in mid-level moisture.
This will not last long though...as by late Saturday/Saturday
evening our airmass will have dried back out aloft...with further
drying out of the low levels then expected through the balance of
Saturday night. With the low level flow further veering from
westerly to west-northwesterly during this latter time frame...this
will result in the lake effect snow showers weakening across the
traditional snow belts east and east-southeast of the lakes
Saturday night.

With respect to snowfall amounts...these continue to look to only be
in the light to modest range Saturday/Saturday night given both the
fairly mobile nature of the lake snows (which will cut down on
residence time) as well as the only marginally favorable environment
initially...the general lack of deeper moisture for much of the
time...and a decent amount of shear. In general expect accums to
range from 1-2" east of Lake Erie to to 1-3" east of Lake Ontario...
with the greatest amounts focused across the higher terrain in both
instances. Outside of these...the rest of the area should merely see
some scattered light snow showers or flurries with only some very
minor accumulations.

By Sunday morning only some very limited leftover snow showers/
flurries will be left southeast of the lakes...with these fading
away during the morning as the low-level flow becomes unfavorable
(east to southeast) out ahead of an advancing weak wave of low
pressure...whose existence the guidance suite has come into notably
better agreement on since yesterday at this time. The main guidance
packages all now suggest that this latter feature will then make its
way across or just south of our region later Sunday and Sunday night
while bringing a more general round of light to modest snowfall (1-
3"/2-4" in most places...with the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario possibly seeing some marginally advisory-worthy (3-5")
amounts. As this system pulls east of our longitude later Sunday
night...its synoptic snow will then give way to some weak lingering
lake effect snow showers south of the lakes as a northerly flow of
much colder and drier air overspreads our region in its wake.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northerly flow of much colder but dry air will keep scattered light
snow showers/flurries going south of the lakes (particularly Lake
Ontario) Monday morning...before building low level ridging shuts
these down from west to east Monday afternoon. Otherwise Monday will
feature our coldest daytime highs of the young winter season to
date...with maxes only expected to range from the upper teens across
the North Country and higher terrain south of Lake Ontario to the
lower 20s elsewhere.

After that...the low level ridge will then drift southeast and off
the mid-Atlantic coastline through midweek...while a pair of clipper-
type systems (the second stronger than the first) make their way
eastward/northeastward across the Great Lakes and southeastern
Canada/New England...with the guidance suite currently exhibiting a
decent amount of spread in the strength and track of these lows. In
general this should bring increasing chances for some light to
modest synoptically-driven snow showers to our region as we push
through midweek along with at least a modest warming trend...with
the latter also possibly allowing some rain to mix in by Wednesday.
Following the passage of the second low...much colder air then looks
poised to return by Thursday along with renewed chances for lake
effect snow showers downwind of the lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR conditions across many area terminals early this afternoon with
gradual improvements as a cold front moves through the area. Lake
effect snow continues east and southeast of Lake Ontario while areas
east of Lake Erie have been mostly reduced to scattered light snow.
Through this afternoon, brief reductions in visibility will be
possible with any heavier bands of snow passing through the area.
KROC is the terminal most likely to see these impacts shortly after
18z. Additionally, gusty northwest winds will continue through the
afternoon behind the frontal passage. Gusts 25-35 kt will be
possible. Skies will begin to clear tonight, but ceilings could
remain around MVFR levels near any lingering lake effect bands
southeast of the lakes. Mainly VFR conditions should persist through
much of Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty winds have begun to turn northwesterly behind the cold frontal
passage with high end Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing on
Lake Erie and Ontario through this evening. Friday will be
relatively calmer before gusty southwest winds return with our next
system on Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-
     005-012-019-020-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Brothers/SW
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...Brothers

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion