WX in text
512
FXUS61 KBUF 141024
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
524 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie will
continue this morning, then break up into more widespread, but
weaker multiple bands of snow showers this afternoon through tonight
south of the lakes as winds turn northerly. A very cold airmass and
a breeze will produce wind chills near or a little below zero at
times through Monday morning. Another clipper system will then cross
the eastern Great Lakes Monday through early Tuesday, with another
period of lake enhanced snow east of the lakes with additional
accumulations, heaviest east of Lake Ontario. Lake effect snow will
end on Tuesday, and this will be followed by a notable warming trend
through the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue to be the main focus through tonight.
Lake induced equilibrium levels will peak in the 12K-15K foot range
this morning just ahead of a secondary arctic front. Forecast BUFKIT
soundings continue to support ideal cloud microphysics, with a deep
dendritic growth zone topped by a deep layer of saturation with
respect to ice above. This will continue to bring large dendrite
conglomerates and high snow:water ratios in the bands of heavier
lake effect snow.
Off Lake Ontario...
An east-west oriented band will reach peak strength and organization
this morning across Oswego County, supported by a strong zone of
convergence driven by land breeze circulations along the lakeshore.
Peak snowfall rates may reach 2-3" per hour of fluffy snow this
morning as the band focuses on southwest Oswego and far northern
Cayuga counties. The heaviest snow will fall very close to the
lakeshore, with snowfall rates and amounts quickly falling off
inland. Expect an additional 10-16" in the most persistent bands
this morning across southwest Oswego County and far northern Cayuga
County.
Late morning through early afternoon, a secondary arctic front will
move south across the lake, capturing the east-west oriented band
and pushing it south and onshore along much of the south shore. This
will bring a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow moving south off
the lake from the Rochester area to western Oswego County and inland
into the northern Finger Lakes before the band breaks apart with
distance from the lake. Expect 1-3" of accumulation south of the
lake including Rochester, and up to 3-6" across portions of Wayne
County.
Late afternoon through tonight, NNW flow will support a more
widespread spray of multiple weak bands of snow showers south of the
lake, extending through the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. This
will bring another dusting to 2" of accumulation overnight.
Off Lake Erie...
Persistent, mainly light lake enhanced upslope snow will continue
this morning across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and
Boston Hills. The secondary arctic front will move south this
afternoon, with winds veering to the NNW. A Lake Huron band will
likely cross the area and bring some local enhancement to snowfall
rates and amounts for a few hours this afternoon, but it will remain
transient and end up in NW PA by early this evening. Expect
additional accumulations of 3-5" today across the higher terrain of
the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills.
Tonight, northwest flow will support occasional, mainly light snow
showers across the western Southern Tier and Boston Hills with
additional accumulations of a spotty inch or two.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Just as LES starts to wind down behind the exiting mid level trough
axis, yet another shortwave in the pipeline will propagate southeast
across the lower Great Lakes Monday and Monday night setting the
stage for one last round of localized moderate to heavy lake snows
downwind of the lakes, before surface ridging and WAA aloft will
finally shut down the LE machine for a bit by later Tuesday.
The details...
Off Lake Erie...Next wave approaches as we open the period. This
will force over lake flow to back to the west Monday morning and to
southwest by the afternoon, while deeper moisture associated with
the shortwave moves in aloft. Expect initial lake band to form
Monday morning east of the lake across Southern Erie, western
Wyoming, and northern Portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus
counties, before lifting north across the Niagara Frontier including
the Buffalo Metro area and intensifying. Band will peak in intensity
Monday afternoon as LE parameters maximize...fetch down the long
axis of the lake under southwest flow, deep moisture and plenty of
lift through the saturated DGZ layer. Shortwave crosses the area
Monday night with over lake flow veering west Monday evening, while
moisture aloft is gradually stripped away Monday night. This will
shove the band back south of the Buffalo Metro Monday evening, with
the band weakening considerably second half of Monday night as
equilibrium levels continue to fall within a developing WAA regime
aloft. Only minor accumulations expected outside of main lake effect
areas. As for accumulations...a few inches will be possible across
Southern Erie, western Wyoming, and northern Portions of Chautauqua
and Cattaraugus counties Monday morning. As the bad swings north
Monday afternoon, 2-4 inches will be possible across the Niagara
Frontier centered on areas south and east of Niagara Falls including
the Buffalo Metro area, likely impacting the evening commute. A
Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be needed here...but will let
oncoming shift have another look before issuing this being 3rd
period at this point. Another couple inches will be possible Monday
evening across Southern Erie, western Wyoming, and northern Portions
of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties as the band shifts back south
before dissipating later Monday night. A few snow showers will be
possible Tuesday morning across as whats`s left of the band shifts
back north across the Buffalo Metro area in a very weakened state.
Otherwise, a general inch or two of synoptic snow associated with
the trough can be expected area wide.
Off Lake Ontario...Next wave approaches as we open the period. This
will force over lake flow to back to the west Monday morning and to
west-southwest/southwest by the afternoon, while deeper moisture
associated with the shortwave moves in aloft. Weakened lake band
over northern Wayne and northern Cayuga County will start to
intensify and lift north into Oswego County Monday morning. Similar
to the Lake Erie band, LE parameters will peak Monday afternoon and
evening for the same aforementioned reasons, however depth of cold
air will be even greater. With this in mind expect the band to
intensify Monday afternoon while shifting north across northern
Oswego, southern/central Jefferson (including Watertown Metro), and
much of Lewis counties...with the heaviest snows targeting the Tug
Hill. Band will remain in nearly the same position into the first
half of Monday night before starting to weaken second half of Monday
night (about six hours later than Lake Erie) as deeper moisture is
stripped away and equilibrium levels continue to fall within a
developing WAA regime aloft. Only minor accumulations expected
outside of main lake effect areas. As for accumulations...several
inches will be possible across the western two-thirds of Oswego
County Monday morning before shifting further north. Band will peak
in intensity Monday afternoon and evening across northern Oswego,
southern/central Jefferson (including Watertown Metro), and much of
Lewis counties. 7-13 inches look possible during this 12-hr period
in the most persistent snows, with the highest amounts centered on
the Tug Hill. Several inches will be possible Monday
afternoon/evening across the Watertown Metro potentially impacting
the Monday evening commute. Band starts to weaken and shrink back
toward the lake second half of Monday night with a few more inches
possible across far southern Jefferson, northern Oswego, and far
western Lewis counties, before weakening further and shifting back
across Jefferson County Tuesday morning producing another inch or
so. With all this in mind, confidence is high enough at this time to
issue a Winter Storm Watch for Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties
from Monday morning through early Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, a
general inch or two of synoptic snow associated with the trough can
be expected area wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The deep trough/ridge pattern will relax across the CONUS, becoming
more a more zonal and progressive pattern this period. At the
surface, large area of high pressure will slip east off the
southeast coast to open the period with southwesterly flow
developing across the region. Though strong WAA will be ongoing
aloft, it will not be realized at the surface Tuesday night with dry
and seasonable temperatures expected. Weak cold front crosses the
area Wednesday, but not before temperatures rise a bit above normal
for the first time in quite a while. This will also bring the chance
for few rain and higher elevation snow showers, mainly east of Lake
Ontario. Transient ridge crosses the area with another brief period
of mainly dry weather Wednesday night.
Deep southwesterly flow ensues across our region Thursday as a
sharp, but progressive mid/upper level trough digs south across the
upper Mississippi Valley. Strong WAA and deeper moisture streaming
in from the south ahead of this feature will bring the likelihood of
mainly rain showers by Thursday afternoon as temperatures rise into
the upper 30s and 40s. It will also become very windy as a 60-70
knot southerly LLJ moves across the area. Being that the jet is in
the WAA advection side of the system, expect only partial mixing
down of the winds aloft. That said, a very tight pressure gradient
setting up across the area owed to strong low pressure moving into
the upper Great Lakes will bring the potential for strong winds,
especially across downslope areas.
A round of rain and wind is then expected Thursday night as a strong
cold front plows across the area. Rain will rapidly change to snow
behind the front as a shot of much colder air moves in behind the
boundary. 40-50 knot LLJ lingers in the CAA as deepening low pressure
pulls northeast into southern Quebec, so expect gusty winds for
Thursday night and Friday as well, with temperatures feeling much
more like winter once again to finish out the work week. Some
potential lake effect snow on Friday as well with much colder air in
place. This powerful system and cold front will need to be monitored
closely over the coming days for potential impactful weather
(especially strong winds) across our area.
Otherwise, conditions will quickly flip back the other way for the
start of the weekend as a strong warm front pushes through the area
boosting temperatures back above normal, but also brings the chance
for rain showers, with snow showers possible across the higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario where cooler air hangs on.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Locally heavy lake effect snow will continue this morning east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The heaviest snow will be off Lake
Ontario and focus across Oswego County this morning, with VLIFR
conditions within the band. Off Lake Erie, persistent lake enhanced
upslope snow will continue to produce IFR/LIFR across the higher
terrain east of the lake through the morning, including KJHW.
Outside of the main lake effect areas, expect VFR to prevail through
the morning hours.
A secondary cold front will move south across the eastern Great
Lakes midday through early afternoon, capturing the lake bands and
spreading them south. The Lake Ontario band may bring a brief burst
of moderate to heavy snow at KROC early this afternoon as it moves
south off the lake. Otherwise, lake effect snow will spread out into
a more widespread spray of light snow showers south of the lakes
this afternoon through tonight with a mix of MVFR/IFR VSBY and MVFR
CIGS.
Outlook...
Monday...Deteriorating to IFR/LIFR east of the lakes in lake
enhanced snow.
Tuesday...Local IFR in lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario early,
otherwise improving to VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance for a few rain/snow
showers east of Lake Ontario.
Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing. Gusty
winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate westerlies this morning will become northwest this
afternoon and evening behind a secondary cold front that will cross
the lower Great Lakes late morning through early afternoon. Small
Craft Advisory conditions will continue on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario through this evening.
There will be a very brief break in the winds late tonight and early
Monday morning. Another clipper cold front will then cross the
eastern Great Lakes Monday afternoon and Monday night. This will
bring another period of strong WSW winds to Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario Monday late morning through Monday night, with high end
Small Craft Advisory conditions.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ004.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ005.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
NYZ006.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for NYZ006>008.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
NYZ007-008.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ019-020-
085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
this evening for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion
