WX in text
006
FXUS61 KBUF 020834
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
434 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of warm fronts will lift northward across our region today,
with fair weather this morning ending as rain, and to the north,
initial snow, expands across our region. Rain, moderate at times,
will also feature a few rumbles of thunder within a mild airmass
tonight ahead of a cold front that will cross our region Thursday.
It will also become windy tonight and Thursday, especially the
downslope areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, and hills tops
tonight and then northeast of the Lakes behind the cold front
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This morning surface high pressure ridge axis is departing our
region to the east, with a easterly flow developing. Meanwhile an
area of low pressure is across the mid Central Plains, with a warm
front extending eastward across the Ohio Valley. Deep easterly to
southerly flow between these features, with a strong LLJ 60 to 70
knots will advect a moisture rich, mild airmass over our region
through early Thursday. A cold front will sweep eastward across our
region later Thursday, ending rain showers from west to east while
also putting an end to the mini warm spell.
Winds...
A wind advisory has been issued for portions of our region.
This LLJ of 60 to 70 knots will only be a few thousand feet above
the surface. Though a warm air advection pattern is not the greatest
for mixing these winds to the surface, there will be potential
starting late this afternoon and through the night for some stronger
gusts. Initially a southeast flow downsloping off the Chautauqua
ridge may reach speeds of 50 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline
beginning late this afternoon. Through the evening hours and tonight
as the LLJ strengthens gusts to 50 mph will be possible for our
higher terrain...including the Southern Tier, hills of Wyoming
county, and over to the Bristol Hills. Additionally tonight the
southeast to south flow over the Tug Hill has the potential to
downslope along the northwest face of the Tug Hill, with gusts up to
50 mph.
The lake plain tonight will be breezy, with southerly gusts 30 to 40
mph.
As the winds veer to southwesterly Thursday, the focus will
be upon areas northeast of the Lakes. Gusts northeast of Lake Erie
could reach 40 mph, while within a tighter pressure gradient, gusts
could reach 45 to 50 mph northeast of Lake Ontario. East of Lake
Ontario the wind advisory will run through the afternoon hours of
Thursday.
Precipitation...
Initial weak isentropic lift may bring a few light rain showers or
sprinkles to far WNY this morning. The main area of rain will arrive
more towards early afternoon for WNY, this along a deeper area of
convergence on the nose of the strong LLJ. PWAT values will rise to
over an inch this afternoon lending to the rain to become moderate
in intensity. Could see a half inch of rainfall today for WNY.
Thermal profiles display a colder expanse of air to our east, such
that initial p-type will likely be snow for the eastern Lake Ontario
region. As mild air flows northward a change over to rain will
occur. Surface temperatures will be marginal for any freezing rain,
with just a slight chance for freezing rain across Lewis County. Any
snow accumulation this afternoon and early evening will be a slushy
inch or less.
Behind the main area of moisture, and well within the warm sector of
this storm system rain will taper off from south to north across WNY
this late afternoon and early evening. Precipitation will become
focused along and east of Lake Ontario for the evening hours.
Through the evening elevated instability will increase across our
region, with MUCAPE values 250 to 500 J/KG. There will be very
little surface based CAPE as the surface cold front approaches the
region tonight, but the quality of elevated instability will bring
the risk for a few elevated storms. Though the overnight timing is
not great for severe storms, there will be a marginal risk owing to
the strong LLJ overhead, for strong to severe storms tonight for
areas west of the Genesee Valley.
Widespread showers Thursday morning, and perhaps a rumble of thunder
ahead of a cold front will taper off through the afternoon with the
passage of the cold front, and deeper moisture pushing eastward.
Temperatures...
It will become mild this period with the easterly flow veering to
southeast and then southerly tonight and Thursday. Highs today will
reach towards 50F across WNY, and mid 40s for the eastern Lake
Ontario region. This southerly flow tonight will limit the cooling
with lows ranging through the 40s for WNY, and upper 30s for the
North Country. The thermal ridge axis will cross our region Thursday
morning, with 850 hPa temperatures around +12 to +13C. This will
yield highs in the 60s, with lower to mid 70s likely for the Genesee
Valley. A southwest flow over the cold, and still icy Lake Erie
waters will keep the Buffalo Metro area and areas north of Watertown
in the lower 60s...if not upper 50s.
Basin average precipitation through Thursday will range an inch to
an inch and quarter...except for the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes
region which will likely average closer to a half to three quarters
of an inch. The latest MMEFS of the GEFS and the NAEFS display
several creeks and rivers rising to near bankfull, but likely to
remain below flood stage.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An exiting trough centered over Quebec Thursday evening will give
way to zonal flow by Friday morning with mid-level ridging building
east across the Great Lakes through the day Friday and Friday night.
As a result, the surface cold front that sagged southeast across the
region Thursday will continue to sag further south Thursday night as
the next surface high builds east across the Great Lakes. However,
the cold front will become stalled across central Pennsylvania
Thursday night and Friday due another area of strong surface high
pressure off the Southeast coast in the Atlantic.
As a result, rain showers associated with the front Thursday night
will lie across the New York State and Pennsylvania border. These
showers will then sag further south into central Pennsylvania Friday
with western and north central New York remaining on the dry side.
The dry weather won`t last long however as the next northern and
southern stream troughs work their way into the central CONUS. The
quicker northern stream trough will support a surface low to develop
along the stalled boundary and help this boundary lift north across
the region late Friday night into Saturday as a warm front,
reintroducing rain showers into the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect active weather throughout the weekend and into the start of
next week as both northern and southern stream troughs become
positively tilted along the central to eastern CONUS. Additionally,
the northern stream trough will allow a few shortwave passages to
round its base. Overall this will support, the aforementioned
surface low from the end of the Short Term Discussion to lift
northeast across the area Saturday, with a secondary low to follow
suit Sunday, finally pulling the boundary east of the area Monday.
Initially precipitation associated with waves will start off as all
rain, before cold air is introduced into the region in the wake of
the boudary`s passage Sunday supporting a mix of rain and snow
across the lower elevations and some snow across the higher terrain.
Brief ridging Monday will give way to the next surface low Tuesday,
supporting the chances for showers to return to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found and these
conditions will prevail through the next 6 to 12 hours. A few
sprinkles of rain will be possible near KBUF and KIAG this morning
as an initial warm front lifts northward across WNY.
Ahead of a second warm front, increasing moisture will bring lower
cloud ceiling heights as well as a period of rain. Rain may begin as
snow (brief IFR) for areas east of Lake Ontario, including the KART
airfield. Moderate rain at times may bring brief IFR flight
conditions this afternoon...otherwise widespread MVFR flight
conditions are expected within the rain. Will carry a tempo for now
for western TAF sites for the heavier rain.
Behind the warm front a dry slot will taper off the rain this
evening for WNY. Any dry weather will be short-lived as from the
west, showers and elevated instability arrive back into our area
generating possible rumbles of thunder. Any thunderstorms will
likely be the final 6 hours of this TAF cycle.
There will also be gusty winds as a powerful LLJ enters our region.
With a base of 50 to 60 knots at 2K feet LLWS will be likely for all
TAF sites. Additionally it will become gusty at the surface with the
hill tops of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region possibly
gusting to 40 knots this evening and through the night.
Outlook...
Thursday...Restrictions to MVFR/IFR early with rain showers exiting.
Continued windy.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...Restrictions likely in scattered to numerous rain showers.
Sunday...Restrictions possible in scattered rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Easterly winds will increase this morning as the axis of a surface
high pressure advances eastward. Small craft advisories have been
expanded to include both Lakes, as well as the upper Niagara River
as southeast and then southerly winds increase in speed. Gusty winds
will continue through Thursday before winds and waves relax Thursday
night, allowing for the SCA conditions to end.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ007-008.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Thursday
for NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Thursday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
Thursday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for
LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Friday for LOZ044-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas
NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion
