WX in text

787
FXUS61 KBUF 140612
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
112 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie will
continue this morning, then break up into more widespread, but
weaker multiple bands of snow showers this afternoon through tonight
south of the lakes as winds turn northerly. A very cold airmass and
a breeze will produce wind chills near or a little below zero at
times through Monday morning. Another clipper system will then cross
the eastern Great Lakes Monday through early Tuesday, with another
period of lake enhanced snow east of the lakes with additional
accumulations, heaviest east of Lake Ontario. Lake effect snow will
end on Tuesday, and this will be followed by a notable warming trend
through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue to be the main focus through tonight.
Lake induced equilibrium levels will peak in the 12K-15K foot range
this morning just ahead of a secondary arctic front. Forecast BUFKIT
soundings continue to support ideal cloud microphysics, with a deep
dendritic growth zone topped by a deep layer of saturation with
respect to ice above. This will continue to bring large dendrite
conglomerates and high snow:water ratios in the bands of heavier
lake effect snow.

Off Lake Ontario...

An east-west oriented band will reach peak strength and organization
this morning across Oswego County, supported by a strong zone of
convergence driven by land breeze circulations along the lakeshore.
Peak snowfall rates may reach 3-4" per hour of fluffy snow this
morning as the band settles slowly southwest across Oswego County
and into far northern Cayuga County. The heaviest snow will fall
close to the lakeshore, with snowfall rates and amounts quickly
falling off inland. Expect an additional 10-16" in the most
persistent bands this morning across Oswego County and far northern
Cayuga County.

Late morning through early afternoon, a secondary arctic front will
move south across the lake, capturing the east-west oriented band
and pushing it south and onshore along much of the south shore. This
will bring a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow moving south off
the lake from the Rochester area to western Oswego County and inland
into the northern Finger Lakes before the band breaks apart with
distance from the lake. Expect 1-3" of accumulation south of the
lake including Rochester, and up to 3-6" across portions of Wayne
County.

Late afternoon through tonight, NNW flow will support a more
widespread spray of multiple weak bands of snow showers south of the
lake, extending through the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. This
will bring another dusting to 2" of accumulation overnight.

Off Lake Erie...

Persistent, mainly light lake enhanced upslope snow will continue
this morning across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and
Boston Hills. The secondary arctic front will move south this
afternoon, with winds veering to the NNW. A Lake Huron band will
likely cross the area and bring some local enhancement to snowfall
rates and amounts for a few hours this afternoon, but it will remain
transient and end up in NW PA by early this evening. Expect
additional accumulations of 3-5" today across the higher terrain of
the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills.

Tonight, northwest flow will support occasional, mainly light snow
showers across the western Southern Tier and Boston Hills with
additional accumulations of a spotty inch or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Brief weak ridging Sunday night will give way to a subtle mid-level
shortwave trough diving across the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday.
Ongoing weak lake effect will become lake enhanced and shift north
as winds back from northwest to southwest. Additionally outside of
the lake enhanced areas east of the lakes, expect a widespread light
snowfall across the remainder of the area.

Mid-level flow will then become zonal Tuesday, supporting a warming
trend aloft. Surface high pressure centered over the Southeastern
United States will ridge northward into the region.

Looking further into the details...

Off Lake Erie - Drier air, shear and surface high pressure will
weaken lake snows Sunday night and Monday. However, activity won`t
completely diminish as the next mid-level feature arrives to the
eastern Great Lakes late Monday, reviving the activity and shifting
it north as it becomes lake enhanced. By Monday afternoon and into
the early evening, the lake effect will lie northeast of the lake,
impacting the Buffalo Metro. This activity will then drift south
into the Southtowns of Buffalo Monday night before weakening by
Tuesday morning as dry air pushes into WNY. There is an increasing
chance for some advisory worthy snow east and northeast of Lake
Erie, including the Buffalo Metro area.

Off of Lake Ontario - A spray of lake effect activity will continue
Sunday night while gradually weakening. However, activity won`t
completely diminish as the next mid-level feature arrives to the
eastern Great Lakes Monday, reviving the activity and shifting it
north as it becomes lake enhanced. This band will first re-intensify
across eastern Oswego county Monday morning then traverse as far
north as the Watertown Metro Monday afternoon before shifting south
and hanging overhead of the Tug Hill Monday night where it will
gradually weaken through the start of Tuesday. There is an
increasing chance that snowfall amounts Monday and Monday will
accumulate to high end advisory or low end warning amounts.

As the surface ridge nudges northward across the region Tuesday
morning, dry, `warmer` air will filter across the region, resulting
in a break in the snow activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Heading into the middle of the work week, mid-level flow will become
more zonal, forcing cold air to retreat north into Canada and allow
for warmer air to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. A
surface low centered over the Southeastern United States will shift
east out to sea by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the next shortwave
trough will slide east across the Great Lakes through Wednesday,
resulting in a weak frontal boundary to cross the eastern Great
Lakes. With its passage, expect a chance for a few rain or wet snow
showers.

Ahead of a strong Pacific trough traversing east across North
America midweek, a much warmer airmass will arrive by Thursday
allowing temperatures to rise will into the 40s. However, with the
aforementioned trough, will come the associated strong surface low
pressure moving across northwest Ontario towards the James Bay,
supporting a trailing cold front to pass across the region and
resulting in widespread rain. Much colder air will arrive late
Thursday night and Friday, changing precipitation back over to snow.
There may be a brief window of lake effect snow Friday, but this
potential looks limited with a rapid arrival of dry air by later
Friday, and then another push of strong warm advection by Saturday.
The next shortwave trough will quickly follow the previous strong
trough, supporting another frontal boundary to pass across the
region Saturday. With the aforementioned strong warm advection, most
precipitation will fall in the form of rain, with the only exception
being a mix of rain and snow, or all snow across the colder eastern
Lake Ontario region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Locally heavy lake effect snow will continue this morning east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The heaviest snow will be off Lake
Ontario and focus across Oswego County this morning, with VLIFR
conditions within the band. Off Lake Erie, persistent lake enhanced
upslope snow will continue to produce IFR/LIFR across the higher
terrain east of the lake through the morning, including KJHW.
Outside of the main lake effect areas, expect VFR to prevail through
the morning hours.

A secondary cold front will move south across the eastern Great
Lakes midday through early afternoon, capturing the lake bands and
spreading them south. The Lake Ontario band may bring a brief burst
of moderate to heavy snow at KROC early this afternoon as it moves
south off the lake. Otherwise, lake effect snow will spread out into
a more widespread spray of light snow showers south of the lakes
this afternoon through tonight with a mix of MVFR/IFR VSBY and MVFR
CIGS.

Outlook...

Monday...Deteriorating to IFR/LIFR east of the lakes in lake
enhanced snow.

Tuesday...Local IFR in lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario early,
otherwise improving to VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance for a few rain/snow
showers east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing. Gusty
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate westerlies this morning will become northwest this
afternoon and evening behind a secondary cold front that will cross
the lower Great Lakes late morning through early afternoon. Small
Craft Advisory conditions will continue on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario through this evening.

There will be a very brief break in the winds late tonight and early
Monday morning. Another clipper cold front will then cross the
eastern Great Lakes Monday afternoon and Monday night. This will
bring another period of strong WSW winds to Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario Monday late morning through Monday night, with high end
Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ004.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NYZ006>008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ007-008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ019-020-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
         this evening for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion