WX in text
346
FXUS61 KBUF 161115
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
615 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow east of Lake Erie will end early this morning, with
the lake snow east of Lake Ontario ending by late morning. Dry
weather will return this afternoon through tonight, before a cold
front moves through the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday with a chance
of a few light rain and wet snow showers, especially east of Lake
Ontario. It will turn windy tonight through Wednesday, with the
strongest gusts northeast of Lake Erie. A warming trend will last
through Thursday before a strong cold front crosses the region
Thursday night bringing rain and strong wind gusts. Much colder air
will pour back into the area Friday behind the cold front with a
brief period of lake effect snow showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue to weaken through the morning hours
as inversion heights lower and synoptic scale moisture moves off.
Off Lake Erie...
A weak band of light snow will continue east of the lake early
this morning, shrinking in coverage. The snow should end
altogether no later than mid morning. Any additional
accumulations will be light, with an inch or less. If
precipitation lasts until mid morning, it may end as a brief
period of patchy freezing drizzle as shallowing moisture
profiles remove ice nuclei from the cloud bearing layer. The
lastest model trends suggest the precip will end prior to this
occurring.
Off Lake Ontario...
A band of light to moderate snow will continue early this morning
across southern Jefferson County and northern/western Lewis County.
Expect a quick weakening trend through the morning hours as the band
moves back north across Watertown to the Thousand Islands region and
dissipates by midday. Additional accumulations of 1-2" are possible
from 6 AM Tuesday through the end of the event in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson County and the northwest
portion of the Tug Hill Plateau.
Similar to Lake Erie, if precipitation lasts until midday, it may
end as a brief period of patchy freezing drizzle as shallowing
moisture profiles remove ice nuclei from the cloud bearing layer.
The lastest model trends suggest the precip will end prior to this
occurring.
Following the end of the lake effect, the rest of today will be dry.
There may be a brief period of partial sunshine later this morning
through early afternoon before clouds increase again from northwest
to southeast ahead of an approaching cold front.
A 40-50 knot low level jet will propagate across the eastern Great
Lakes tonight ahead of the cold front. Lapse rates will be poor in a
warm advection regime ahead of the front so full mixing will not be
realized in most locations. The one exception will be northeast of
Lake Erie, where local modification of the boundary layer with flow
off the lake will allow for better mixing and the potential of 35-45
mph gusts overnight across the Niagara Frontier. Downslope winds may
also bring 35-45 mph gusts to the Lake Erie shore of Chautauqua
County tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern remains progressive through the end of the work week,
with a sharp shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes region
to kick things off on Wednesday. A relatively warm airmass will move
across the region with 850mb temperatures near +5C. Ongoing warm air
advection will result in mid to upper 30s across the lake plains in
the morning, increasing to the upper 30s to low 40s by mid-day.
Temperatures will climb above freezing across the higher terrain
during the day. A cold front will move across the region Wednesday
afternoon. Breezy, southwesterly winds are expected. Deep forcing
from an approaching shortwave trough and surface front will support
light rain and snow showers Wednesday, with greater support across
the Tug Hill region. There will likely be a brief period of rain or
snow showers southeast of Buffalo Wednesday morning. About an inch
of snow is possible on the Tug Hill and little to no accumulation
elsewhere.
A brief period of cold air advection will take place late Wednesday
before a mid-level ridge axis moves across the region Wednesday
night. Temperatures will begin to rise late Wednesday night as a
southerly flow increases across the region. The pattern becomes more
amplified as an upper level trough digs into the Plains and strong
ridging occurs across the Northeast Thursday. A surface low is
expected to move from the Plains to the central Great Lakes before
moving into western Quebec by Friday morning. There remains
uncertainty in the intensity and exact track, however there is
medium to high confidence that the low will move northwest of the
forecast area. A low level jet will strengthen over the forecast
area Thursday-Thursday evening. Mean 850mb winds will peak at 60
knots across the region, however a staunch inversion will keep these
winds aloft, for most places. A south-southeast wind will support
the potential for strong downslope winds along the Chautauqua Ridge
into southern Erie county and across the northern Tug Hill region
Thursday through Thursday evening. At this time, wind gusts up to 60
mph are possible if surface winds average 150-170 degrees. There
remains some uncertainty in surface wind direction. Elsewhere, a
tight pressure gradient will maintain breezy, southerly winds
Thursday through Thursday evening. Warm weather is expected Thursday
with temperatures rising into the low to mid 40s across the forecast
area.
A cold front associated with the surface low is expected to move
across Thursday night. Increasing moisture and lift will support
rain Thursday into Thursday evening. Strong cold air advection will
move into the region from west to east behind the front and any rain
will change to snow by Friday morning. The core of the strongest
winds will be ahead of the cold front, however 40 to 50 knots at
850mb may create a period for strong gusty winds Thursday night.
Back to winter-like weather Friday through Friday night, with
breezing westerly winds, falling temperatures, and snow showers.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible across western NY Friday
afternoon. Accumulating snow is possible, with greatest chances east-
southeast of the Lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow to troughing will set-up across the Great Lakes
region Saturday through Sunday. Upper level ridging is expected to
move into the region for the start of the next work week. A
potential clipper will move north of the forecast area Saturday
through Sunday. An unsettled period is possible with rain and snow
showers. Colder air may move into the region behind this system,
resulting in cooler weather and snow showers Sunday night into
Monday, before potentially drying out for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to weaken this morning with
diminishing impacts.
Off Lake Erie, a broad area of flurries and light snow will continue
to shrink early this morning, ending by mid morning with MVFR VSBY
improving to VFR.
Off Lake Ontario, lake effect snow will continue just south and
southeast of KART early this morning. IFR VSBY will continue in the
band of snow through early to mid morning before a weakening band of
snow moves back north across KART mid to late morning and then
dissipates over the Thousand Islands by midday. The northward moving
band may bring one more brief period of IFR to KART later this
morning before VFR VSBY returns this afternoon.
Otherwise, extensive low stratus will persist through at least
midday with widespread MVFR and lower end VFR CIGS. CIGS will
improve to VFR this afternoon in most areas.
A strong 40-50 knot low level jet will propagate across the eastern
Great Lakes tonight. This will bring a period of low level wind
shear to portions of the region where the surface remains decoupled,
and gusty winds at the surface where mixing occurs across Western
NY. The strongest gusts will be found near and northeast of Lake
Erie, with peak gusts in the 30-40 knot range at KBUF and KIAG
overnight.
Outlook...
Wednesday...A period of MVFR/higher terrain IFR ceilings, with a
chance for a few rain/snow showers, especially east of Lake Ontario.
Thursday...VFR with a chance of showers late. Increasing winds.
Thursday night...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing from
west to east. Strong wind gusts, especially in downslope areas.
Friday...Rain changing to snow showers from west to east early.
MVFR/IFR improving to VFR/MVFR in most areas, with lake effect snow
showers bringing local IFR east of the lakes. Very windy.
Saturday...MVFR/VFR in scattered light snow showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will diminish through the early morning hours, but the lighter
winds will not last long. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of an
approaching cold front will bring another round of strong winds to
the lower Great Lakes late tonight through Wednesday. Sustained
winds will peak in the 30-35 knot range. A low end Gale Warning has
been issued for Lake Ontario from late tonight through Wednesday
afternoon, with a high end Small Craft Advisory for Lake Erie.
Strong low pressure will then move across Ontario and Quebec
Thursday through Friday, with a trailing powerful cold front
crossing the lower Great Lakes late Thursday night. Southerly winds
will increase to near gale force Thursday ahead of the cold front,
then swing around to westerly Friday behind the front with gales
likely on both lakes.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM
EST Wednesday for LOZ030.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042-
062.
Gale Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
LOZ043>045-063>065.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
LOZ044-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion
