WX in text

818
FXUS61 KBUF 241511
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1111 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be warm throughout the region this afternoon...especially
over the western counties where highs of 75 to 80 will be common.
While temperatures will remain well above normal through Friday...
conditions will significantly deteriorate later Friday and
particularly Friday night when a cold front will support widespread
showers and possible thunderstorms. It will be 15 to 20 degrees
cooler in the wake of the front on Saturday with slow improvement.
High pressure is guaranteed to supply us with beautiful but cool
weather for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of late this morning, a warm front was still in the process of
crossing the Eastern Lake Ontario region. This feature will be
responsible for a wealth of clouds over that area this afternoon...
and possibly a few showers. Meanwhile...sun filled skies will
accompany summery warmth over the western counties where
temperatures will top out between 75 and 80 away form the immediate
lake shores.

Tonight...the bulk of the region will remain in the warm sector.
This will result in temperatures that will be some 10 degrees above
normal...only bottoming out in the low to mid 50s over the western
counties and in the 40s east of Lake Ontario. A shower will not be
out of the question...although the flavor of the night will just be
partly cloudy.

On Friday...it will remain rather warm with temperatures returning
to the 70s. Unfortunately...all good things must come to an end. A
shortwave moving across the Lower Great Lakes in advance of a wavy
cold front will touch off some scattered showers and possibly some
thunderstorms for the midday and afternoon. While the bulk of the
region will be rain free...the risk for pcpn is probably too high to
roll the dice with outdoor activities.

It will be quite unsettled Friday night as a second...stronger
shortwave will support the gradual passage of a sfc wave and its
associated cold front. Expect fairly widespread showers and possible
thunderstorms with QPF in the vcnty of a quarter...to as much as a
half inch. The higher end of that range will be favored over the far
western counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Showers decrease in coverage from west to east during the day
Saturday behind the passing cold front. A trough tracking over
the region will help to support a few additional showers behind
the more organized activity, especially for areas of upsloping.

Temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees lower for Saturday
afternoon highs across the area in the mid 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure and increased ridging will build into the region
starting Saturday night with the sfc high centering over Lake Erie
by late Sunday afternoon. This will provide a period of dry weather
with a warming trend for the temperatures through at least Monday.

A sfc low tracking well north of the area, along with its trailing
cold front will bring showers to the area starting Tuesday afternoon
and continuing into the morning on Wednesday. Showers currently look
to be fairly quick passing and with the sfc low well to the north of
the region, overall rainfall amounts look to be fairly low. Still
plenty of time between now and then, so some changes in this
scenario are likely.

Temperatures for the period start out near normal and warm to well
above normal by Tuesday. Behind the passing cold front, temperatures
will once again cool to near normal for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions and mainly light winds expected through tonight. Warm
frontal segment will slowly shift north into northern New York,
which may bring a few light showers toward the North Country
(KART) and Saint Lawrence Valley.

Outlook...
Friday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with showers likely, mainly later
in the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR early with a chance of showers, improving to
VFR later in the day.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will drift from the Lower Great Lakes to New England
today with relatively light winds. The light synoptic scale flow will
allow for local lake breezes this afternoon with onshore winds
developing.

Low pressure will then move into the central Great Lakes Friday
afternoon before moving over or just north of the lower Great Lakes
Friday night through early Saturday. East winds will increase Friday
on Lake Ontario ahead of this system with choppy conditions
developing. Conditions approaching Small Craft Advisory are more
likely late Friday night through Saturday night behind the cold
front, especially on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/JM/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion