WX in text

903
FXUS61 KBUF 041104
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
604 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The second of a pair of strong cold fronts will cross the
region through this morning, bringing snow showers and bands of
locally heavier lake enhanced snow. The most organized portions of
the lake snows are currently east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
early this morning, and they will move rapidly south through the
morning to areas southeast of both lakes. These bands will produce
light to locally moderate snow accumulations, and gusty winds will
also produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. The coldest airmass
of the winter season will arrive late today through early Friday
with wind chills dropping to at or below zero tonight through early
Friday morning. Mainly dry weather will return by Friday as high
pressure briefly builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KBUF & KTYX radars early this morning showing bands of snow
stretching mainly east of Lake Erie & Ontario, though some lingering
snow showers will be possible northeast of the lakes early. Light to
moderate snow is falling within these bands. A strong cold front is
dropping southeast across Lake Ontario and WNY. Winds are starting
to slowly shift more toward the northwest allowing the bands to
start to shift south some.

Today, snow is expected to the east of the lakes to start the day,
but then shift southeast of the lakes from west to east behind the
passing cold front. Early snow may be heavy for a brief time along
the cold front as it continues to cross the area soon after
daybreak. The axis of a sharp mid-level trough will cross the area
today and combined with the cold temperatures aloft, will continue
to support the lake response off of both lakes. The response off of
Lake Erie will weaken by the late morning to more scattered snow
showers as any limited upstream connection to Lake Huron is
diminished with an incoming ridge and a drier airmass behind the
cold front. Off of Lake Ontario, the lake effect snow will linger
through the evening, but will weaken through the second half of the
day. With the longer fetch over Lake Ontario and the drier air and
increased ridging a little slower to build in, snowfall amounts will
be greatest off of Lake Ontario. Snow amounts of 2 to 5 inches will
be possible for areas east and southeast of Lake Erie, with the
greatest totals over the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Off of
Lake Ontario, snowfall will be heaviest east of the lake early
before shifting southeast of the lake through the day. Snowfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches is expected for areas east and southeast of
Lake Ontario, with locally higher amounts possible for the Tug Hill.
Behind the passing cold front, strong CAA will usher in the coldest
airmass of the season, with temperatures dropping to and remaining
in the mid 20s for most areas. The CAA advection will also help to
bring winds up some with a decent LLJ of around 40 knots, resulting
in wind gusts to as high as 35 mph at times. Winds, combined with
falling snow or previously accumulated snowfall will result in
blowing and drifting snow, further reducing visibilities. With the
snow amounts expected and timing of some of the snow, Winter Weather
Advisories remain in place for portions of the area, details on
those can be found below.

Tonight, any lingering lake effect snow will taper off through the
evening and into the overnight as ridging increases and drier air
filters into the region. Lake snows will taper off from west to
east, with snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario the slowest to
taper off. Any snow that lingers into the evening and overnight
should only amount to a coating to few tenths of an inch. Winds will
weaken this evening and into the overnight, resulting in any blowing
snow to end. With 850H temperatures expected to drop to the -17C to
-20C range, overnight lows in the single digits to single digits
below zero are expected across the area, which will be the coldest
temperatures experienced since last winter for most if not all
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will cross our region Friday and Friday night
with fair weather.

Saturday a cold front will bear down upon our region, this from a
Hudson Bay low. Southwest flow ahead of the front will bring weak
bands of lake effect snow, though by time convergent lift and cold
airmass organizes these bands, the better synoptic moisture will be
to the east, leaving the bands of snow weak.

Saturday night the cold front will drop across the Lakes, bringing
light snow across the region, while also enhancing the lake effect
snow some with better moisture, ascent and steeper lapse rates. Lake
effect snow will likely stay shy of advisory levels, except for east
of Lake Ontario where better lift ahead of a stalling cold front may
linger a band of snow over the Tug Hill.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday the aforementioned cold front will stall near our region,
with a weak wave upon the front, supported by an upstream shortwave
trough swinging across the eastern Great Lakes. This will support
light snow before a secondary trough pushes snow to the south and
east, while also ushering in a very cold airmass, with 850 hPa
temperatures dropping down into the mid negative teens. This will
support inland near zero, to below zero temperatures, and single
digits closer to the Lakes Sunday night into Monday morning.

Thereafter, an active northern jet, with several shortwaves rippling
across the Great Lakes and southern Canada through mid-week. Each
wave will support weak to moderate snowfall, and brief lake effect
snow...and model consensus has each related surface low filling as
it passes to our north, which will keep any high wind threat at bay.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mixture of IFR and MVFR flight conditions are present across
western and north-central NY this morning. A cold front will cross
the eastern Great Lakes through the first half of this morning. The
front will produce a few scattered snow showers and local/brief IFR.
More importantly the passing frontal boundary will continue to
encourage bands of locally heavier lake effect snow off both lakes.

Off Lake Erie, the earlier band of snow northeast of the lake
initially shifted south some, but another larger area of lake
enhanced snow is developing over the same area. As the cold front
approaches and crosses the area, the band of snow is expected to
move rapidly south into the higher terrain of the western Southern
Tier including KJHW this morning. The lake snow will then gradually
decrease in coverage and intensity across the western Southern Tier
today before ending this evening. This band of snow will produce a
few hours of IFR/LIFR conditions as it moves south across the area
this morning. Intensity of snow will back off today, with local
MVFR/IFR across the Southern Tier.

Off Lake Ontario, a band of snow has become organized over KART this
morning, stretching to KGTB. It will drift southeast crossing over
the Tug Hill Plateau and Oswego County just before daybreak this
morning. The band will then settle to the southeast corner of the
lake today from near KSDC to KSYR. This band will produce local
IFR/LIFR conditions this morning including KART and KGTB, with local
IFR/LIFR southeast of Lake Ontario today.

For KROC, the eastern end of the Lake Erie band may produce a very
brief period of IFR overnight, with Lake Ontario lake effect
potentially producing some IFR later this afternoon as the band
settles farther south.

Gusty winds in the 30-35 knot range will bring the potential for
blowing snow, causing reduced visibilities where snow is falling, or
has accumulated earlier in the day.

Tonight, any lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of the
lakes will taper off as ridging increases and drier air moves into
the region. Early MVFR conditions will improve to mainly VFR
starting around midnight and continuing through the rest of the
night.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
The second of a pair of cold fronts will cross the lower Great Lakes
through the first half of this morning. Behind the passing front,
gusty winds will veer to west and northwest through the day today,
producing a round of high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-
     005-012-019-020-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock/SW
MARINE...Hitchcock/SW

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion