WX in text

241
FXUS61 KBUF 220528
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
128 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored over the Mid Atlantic region will continue to
pump unseasonably warm weather into our region into Wednesday...as
near record high temperatures will climb to as much as much as 20
degrees above normal. For some areas...this will equate to readings
similar to those normally experienced in late August. A strong...
moisture starved cold front will plow through the area late
Wednesday to usher in a much chiller airmass for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Persistent high pressure will drift across the Mid Atlantic
region through Tuesday night. This will guarantee that our
stretch of fair, dry weather will persist along with
temperatures that will average some 10 degrees above normal
tonight...and a solid 15 to 20 degrees warmer for Tuesday and
Tuesday night. In fact...mercury levels close to 80F on Tuesday
for a large area of the lake plains will be more typical of late
August than the latter half of October.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The closed mid-level low centered over Colorado this morning
will continue to work its way northeast as the next trough dives
south across the Pacific Northwest. Eventually these two mid-
level features will join together, creating one trough across
the Upper Midwest, where it will support a surface low across
northern Canada, in addition to a cold front to sweep from
northwest to southeast across the region Wednesday afternoon and
night. Provided the limited moisture with this feature, expect
some showers with up to a tenth possible across the eastern Lake
Ontario region and a few hundredths across western New York.
Aside from the precipitation, wind will be the main story with
prefrontal gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible and up to 45mph across
the Niagara Frontier.

The showers will then begin to taper off late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning from west to east. However, temperatures in the
wake of the front aloft will drop down towards -4C at 850mb
supporting a limited lake response southeast of both lakes. Lake
effect rain showers will diminish through the day on Thursday as
high pressure and associated dry air nudges into the region.

Combination from the clear skies Thursday night and the cooler
airmass aloft will support the formation for some patchy frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The next longwave trough aloft will advance across the midwest and
into the Great Lakes region Friday, supporting the next wave of
active weather through the weekend. The next surface low will slide
northeast across the upper Great Lakes Friday. As this low crosses
northeast across the Ontario province, a cold front will slide from
west to east Friday night through Saturday. Overall expect mainly
rain showers Friday evening, however with the loss of daytime
heating and cooler air advecting in a mix of rain and snow will be
possible across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and eastern
Lake Ontario region.

In the wake of the front Saturday night through Sunday, expect rain
showers to continue southeast of the lakes as temperatures aloft
drop to -6C at 850mb supporting lake enhancement.

The trough will then slide east into New England Sunday night, with
mid-level ridging to follow. Overall expect surface high pressure to
build across the lower Great Lakes for the end of the weekend into
the start of the new work week, supporting a dry start to the new
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found and these
conditions will persist through the TAF cycle. Such a large
spread between temperature and dewpoint will keep fog from
reaching the KJHW airfield tonight. South winds around 5 knots
through this morning will veer more southwest to around 10
knots after 14z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...VFR.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with a
brief round of scattered to numerous showers late Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night. Also windy...with southwesterly gusts
to 30-35 kts likely across far western New York and northeast of
Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers, especially southeast
of Lake Ontario.
Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Quieter conditions tonight and Tuesday with a LLJ moving eastward
and a return to light south to southwest flow.

A strong cold front will then cross the Lower Great Lakes late
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Out ahead of the front...
southwesterlies will increase to the 20-25 knot range with higher
gusts on Wednesday...resulting widespread advisory-level conditions.
In the wake of the front winds will then veer to northwesterly and
remain elevated into Wednesday evening on Lake Erie and into late
Wednesday night on Lake Ontario...before high pressure builds across
the Lower Lakes on Thursday and brings diminishing winds and wave
action.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR/RSH/Thomas

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion