WX in text
737
FXUS61 KBUF 112341
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
741 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A notably cooler airmass will overspread our region tonight and
Wednesday...when high temperatures will be confined to the 30s and
40s. The same frontal boundary will then serve as a pathway for a
wave of low pressure that could spread some light mixed rain or wet
snow over parts of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. After
this brief interruption...temperatures will then return to
springtime levels with increasing day to day warmth into the
weekend. Unfortunately...we can also count on a fair amount of rain
this weekend...especially on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of a cold front...Canadian high pressure and a much
cooler airmass will overspread our region tonight. This will result
in temperatures falling into the mid 20s south of Lake Ontario
tonight...with the North country experiencing mins in the mid to
upper teens. Otherwise we can expect fair dry weather...with mainly
moonlit skies/some passing high-level clouds through the early
overnight hours followed by a modest increase in mid level clouds
from the northwest late.
As alluded to above...Wednesday will be a cooler day. The mercury
will only climb to between the mid 30s in the North Country to the
mid 40s across much of the Srn Tier. Meanwhile...the clockwise flow
around exiting high pressure over the St Lawrence valley will steer
some low level Atlantic moisture up over our region...while mid
level moisture will stream in from the Upper Great Lakes. This
moisture will be acted upon by a bullseye of strong isentropic lift
in the region where a tightening H925-70 baroclinic zone will be
centered. The forcing will come as a result of a wave that will work
its way to the east along a stalled frontal boundary over central
portions of Ohio and Pennsylvania...the same front that moved
through here this afternoon. In any case...this will prompt an
increase in clouds Wednesday morning with mixed rain and wet snow
showers breaking out over the western counties during the afternoon
and evening. The highest chance for this nuisance pcpn will be over
the Finger Lakes region and portions of the Southern Tier.
As the sfc wave exits across the Mid Atlantic region and the mid
level moisture gets stripped away Wednesday night...the light pcpn
will taper off from west to east. While some of the higher terrain
of the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region could pick up a
coating of snow...there should be no impact. Otherwise it will
remain rather cloudy with temps settling to between the lower 30s
over the western counties to the mid 20s east of Lk Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A broad upper level trough will move northeast of the forecast area
and zonal flow will set-up overhead Thursday through Thursday night.
Surface high pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes will
extend west across the region while warm air advection continues
aloft across the forecast area. A dull temperature gradient will be
across the region with low level moisture exiting east of north-
central NY Thursday morning. Dry weather is expected into Friday. An
anomalously deep trough will dig into the southern Plains Friday and
ridging will occur across the eastern CONUS. Day-to-day warming is
expected Thursday into Friday.
The pressure gradient will tighten and a southerly flow will
increase across the forecast area Friday through Friday night. A 40-
50kt low level jet will spread across the region Friday night and
could result in strong, downslope winds off the Chautauqua Ridge
into southern Erie county.
As mentioned above, the temperature gradient across the region
Thursday will lead to highs in upper 40s to low 50s across the Lake
Ontario shoreline to north-central NY to the 60s near the NY/PA
border. Highs will soar to the 60s with the exception of the Tug Hill
where the mid to upper 50s is expected. Highs reaching 70 are not
out of the question for the Genesee Valley. Lows will fall to the
30s Thursday night to the 40s to low 50s Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Spring-like warmth with Flooding Possible East of Lake Ontario
This Weekend...
A deep cyclone will move from the Mid-West to northern Ontario
Saturday. An upper level trough will dig into the center of the
country with arctic air spilling into the Northern Plains Sunday and
eventually across the eastern Great Lakes region by Monday.
Initially, a surge of gulf moisture and high theta-e air will move
into the forecast area Saturday. A warm front will drive this area
of isentropic lift and moisture and showers will move from southwest
to northeast across the region. Drier air along with a 50-60kt low
level jet will dry the region out behind the initial surge of
moisture. Temperatures will reach the 60s and while there will be a
period of showers, most of the day will be dry and warm. Gusty,
south winds are expected Saturday into Saturday night.
A strong cold front will approach the region Saturday night. A weak
disturbance which may be coupled with a dual jet structure may
result in widespread showers and a risk of thunderstorms into
Sunday. There remains a spread in the location and speed of the cold
front and intensity of the secondary low, however probabilities are
medium to high that measurable precipitation will occur as the front
moves through the region Sunday. NBM probability of 24-hr rainfall
greater than an inch are low to medium (30-40%) across far western
NY and medium to high (50-60%) across the Tug Hill ending 8pm
Sunday. Only trace to 2" of snow depth exists east of Lake Erie,
while 1-3 feet of snow depth exists east of Lake Ontario. The
combination of snow melt and potential rainfall amounts increase the
risk for river flooding into next week, mainly on the Black River at
Watertown. The latest river ensembles decreased the 10-day
probability of moderate flood on the Black River at Watertown, with
the most likely case of this site reaching minor flood (next week.)
Strong cold air advection will move into the region Sunday night and
mean 850mb temperatures will be near -8C Monday. Most guidance shows
drier air moving into the region behind the cold front so chance for
any snow showers is low. Dry weather is expected into Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tonight cool/dry Canadian high pressure will build across our
region. This will bring predominantly VFR conditions...along with
lightening northwesterly winds veering to northeasterly as we push
through the night. While some guidance still tries to develop some
lower (MVFR) clouds south of Lake Ontario given the northerly
(upslope) component to the flow...believe this to be overdone given
the very dry nature of the incoming airmass. Were these to
occur...these would be most likely across the higher terrain of the
Finger Lakes due to the aforementioned weak upslope flow.
On Wednesday the surface high will make its way east across Quebec
Province...while the cold front that crossed our region this
afternoon begins to slowly return northward across the Ohio Valley
as a warm front. Ongoing warm advection/increasing moisture out
ahead of this latter feature will bring increasing/lowering mid
level clouds through early afternoon. As we push through the rest of
the afternoon and early evening ceilings will continue to lower
through the VFR range south of Lake Ontario as the warm front draws
closer...with some MVFR ceilings developing across the Southern
Tier toward the end of the TAF period. As the warm front
approaches...a few rain and wet snow showers will also become
possible south of Lake Ontario...with the greatest potential for
these expected to be south of KBUF and KROC.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...MVFR western Southern Tier/mainly VFR elsewhere
with chances of rain and wet snow showers gradually ending from west
to east.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
In the wake of a cold front...brisk west-northwesterlies will
continue to produce advisory-level conditions on Lake Ontario into
this evening...before diminishing late this evening and overnight as
Canadian high pressure builds across the Lower Great Lakes.
On Wednesday the center of the high will drift eastward across
Quebec...while a warm frontal boundary slowly edges its way north
across the Ohio Valley. In between these two features...the pressure
gradient will tighten again across the Lower Great Lakes...resulting
in freshening easterlies and another round of advisory-level
conditions to portions of Lake Ontario west of Hamlin Beach from
late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. Winds and waves will
then subside again as we push through Wednesday night.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043-
044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM/JJR
MARINE...JJR
NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion
