WX in text

963
FXUS61 KBUF 132335
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
635 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast snow amounts have increased across
western and north-central NY Wednesday through Thursday night. The
highest accumulations will be along the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston
Hills and across the Eastern Lake Ontario Region. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for these two micro-regions. The speed of a
cold front has increased Wednesday. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are
possible across the Lake Erie shoreline to the Niagara Frontier
through this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds are expected through this evening. Wind gusts up to
40mph are expected from the Lake Erie shoreline to the Niagara
Frontier.

2) A few inches of snow are expected across the higher terrain east
of Lake Ontario tonight.

3) A strong cold front will cause rain to transition to snow
Wednesday. Accumulating snow is expected to begin late Wednesday
across the higher terrain south of Buffalo then expand across the
remainder of the region Wednesday night. Widespread snow will
transition to localized lake effect snow late Wednesday night.

4) Active winter weather continues into next week with accumulating
snow and frigid temperatures at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds are expected through this evening. Wind
gusts up to 40mph are expected from the Lake Erie shoreline to the
Niagara Frontier.

An area of low pressure will move from northern Ontario to central
Quebec through Wednesday. A modestly, strong low-level jet will move
across the eastern Great Lakes region through tonight. Warm air
advection has kept the bulk of the gusty winds aloft today, however
a wind shift and weak cold air advection will support gusty winds at
the surface late this afternoon through the first half of tonight.
Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph are
expected, with the strongest gusts along the Lake Erie shoreline to
the Niagara Frontier and across the higher elevations of the Finger
Lakes region.

2) KEY MESSAGE 2...A few inches of snow are expected across the
higher terrain east of Lake Ontario tonight.

A warm front will move across the forecast area today, and spotty
light rain or snow showers are possible. Most of this activity is
not reaching the ground. An area of strong forcing ahead of a sharp
shortwave trough will swing through the region tonight. This will
likely provide a few hours of light rain showers late today through
this evening, however this feature will pivot eastward and persist
across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Thermal profiles suggest
that precipitation will be snow on the Tug Hill and western Dacks.
This would support 1-2" overnight. Rain or a mix of rain or snow is
expected across lower elevations of the Tug Hill.

3)KEY MESSAGE 3... A strong cold front will result in rain showers
changing to snow Wednesday. Accumulating snow is expected late
Wednesday across the higher terrain south of Buffalo then across the
rest of the region Wednesday night. Widespread snow will transition
to localized lake effect snow late Wednesday night.

Initially, the first of two cold fronts will move across the region
Wednesday. Increasing ascent from an approaching shortwave trough
and increasing moisture will result in numerous rain showers across
the region, with lingering snow showers across the Tug Hill.
Temperatures will begin to fall behind the cold front Wednesday
afternoon into evening. During this time, a southern stream system
will move north along the cold front and ahead of a deepening upper
level trough. Rain showers will mix with snow showers while coverage
becomes more widespread across central and north-central NY through
Wednesday afternoon. Then, the arctic front will move into western
NY by Wednesday evening. Steepening lapse rates and strong low-level
convergence will result in lake enhancement behind the front.

There remains medium uncertainty in the coverage of snow Wednesday
night. Models are struggling with the phasing of the southern system
and the speed of the frontal boundary. At this time, confidence is
high east of the Lakes, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Active winter weather continues into next week with
accumulating snow and frigid temperatures at times.

An anomalously deep (-1 to -3 SD) longwave trough will be well
established across the CONUS east of the Mississippi Thursday. Cross-
polar flow within this trough will bring a shot of arctic air across
the eastern Great Lakes with 850H temps near -20C. This airmass
combined with a ribbon of synoptic moisture within a vorticity
maxima on the backside of the mid-level trough axis, and a very low
DGZ height, will allow for a period of lake effect snow downwind of
the lakes. Prevailing flow Thursday into Thursday evening will be
west-northwesterly, with upstream connections directing the bulk of
the snows southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a tertiary
band `likely` setting up across the Niagara Frontier. Models have
trended notably higher with the 12z suite in regards to the latter
and are reasonably consistent with one another. Would certainly not
rule out advisory amounts in this area, though will hold off on
additional headlines this update cycle to try and establish bit more
run-to-run continuity first. Weaker bands of lake effect will be
possible outside of these main areas, with most if not all locations
picking up at least a fresh coating of snow by day`s end Thursday.
The lake response will substantially weaken late Thursday night into
Friday as inversion heights and moisture content through the column
come crashing down in response to a stout thermal ridge moving
overhead.

In addition to the snow, the arctic airmass combined with a fresh
northwesterly breeze will lead to wind chill values near or below
zero Thursday and Thursday night. Abundant cloud cover and the quick
transition to southerly flow and a warm-advective pattern should
preclude even colder weather, but will need to monitor how quickly
any clearing is established Thursday night.

The active winter pattern is expected to continue right into next
week as additional shortwave energy digs southward from the Canadian
Plains, phasing with a closed low east of Hudson Bay. The deep
trough encroaching on the region will direct a couple of clipper
lows and associated cold fronts across the Great Lakes. These will
bring opportunities for synoptic snow with embedded lake
enhancement, while the gaps between systems are bridged by periods
of lake effect snow. Long range guidance even suggests periods of
southwest flow lake effect next week, though confidence is very low
in any one model or even ensemble system at this forecast range.

Following a period of more seasonable temperatures Friday and
Saturday, the frigid air will make a strong return early week. Early
signs point to to the airmass behind the second aforementioned cold
front being even colder than the one arriving this week, with
widespread teens and single digits for highs temps.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail across much of the area this evening
despite a passing line of rain showers. With this line however,
there is a brief period of strong gusty south-southwest winds, where
peak gusts of 40-45 knots were recorded across the Niagara Frontier
with its passage. As this line moves east, winds will still be gusty
but not as high as they were in WNY, with gusts up to 30-35kts
expected. This mid-level front will pivot and persist across the
eastern Lake Ontario region through tonight. Mostly rain showers are
expected, with snow on the higher elevations. Flight conditions will
lower to MVFR overnight as a pair of cold fronts approach the
region. Increasing moisture will result in scattered showers through
Wednesday morning. Showers will mix with snow by Wednesday
afternoon. MVFR conditions will become IFR or below across the
higher terrain Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR with a mix of rain and snow showers, with IFR
possible in any snow showers.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with localized lake enhanced snow showers
possible east-southeast of the lakes.

Friday through Sunday...MVFR with snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move across northern Ontario and central Quebec
through Wednesday. A southerly flow will continue to support Small
Craft conditions on the Lakes. Southwest winds will increase tonight
before a cold front crosses the Lakes Wednesday. Winds may diminish
Wednesday morning, before increasing out of the west-northwest.
Small Craft conditions will persist trough Thursday morning, and
through Thursday night across eastern Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ006>008-012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/PP
AVIATION...EAJ/HSK
MARINE...HSK

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion