WX in text
418
FXUS61 KBUF 160954
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
554 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind headlines for the Lake Erie shoreline to the Niagara
Frontier and Monroe county were extended until 8 AM Tuesday.
Snow amounts have increased across the region tonight, and east of
the Lakes through Tuesday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong winds will persist through tonight. Conditions will remain
gusty through Tuesday.
2) A cold front will bring showers and the potential for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rain today.
3) Cold weather returns with a possible round of synoptic wet
snow late today and this evening, quickly followed by developing
lake effect snow later tonight through Tuesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong winds will persist through tonight.
Conditions will remain gusty through Tuesday.
A deep area of low pressure will move into Lower Michigan this
morning. Regional radar shows a region of showers and embedded
thunderstorms extending along a strong cold front from Lake Huron to
eastern Ohio. A very strong 70 knot low level jet resides in
the warm sector and across the eastern Great Lakes region this
morning. The region is in a south-southeast, warm advection set-
up with the strongest winds in the low-level jet staying aloft
for most locations. A south-southeast wind and north- northwest
facing slopes will support strong downslope gusty winds along
locations such as the Chautauqua Ridge into southern Erie county
and the northwest slopes of the Tug Hill. Observed wind gusts
over the last 12 hours include 58-64 mph at Fredonia and
Dunkirk. Strong wind gusts will continue through the early
morning hours before downslope winds weaken as low- level flow
begins to back with the approaching cold front. Outside of
favorable downslope locations, strong winds are will continue
off the hills of western New York and the Finger Lakes reaching
the foothills of the Lake Plains tonight, and wind gusts up to
50 mph are expected. Potential impacts include downed trees and
isolated power outages. High Wind Warnings may need to be
downgraded to wind advisories once the downslope winds cut off.
Wind gusts will temporarily relax ahead of the strong cold front and
as rain showers move in from the west. The cold front will swiftly
move across the region between noon and 6pm. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and pressure rises with the gradually weakening low
level jet will continue to support a period of gusty post-frontal
winds. There will likely be a immediate surge of southwest wind
gusts 35 to 45 mph behind the front, then a few hours of a lull as
cold air deepens across the region. Wind gusts will ramp back up
especially along the Lake Erie shoreline to the Niagara
Frontier/Monroe county tonight. Wind Headlines were extended with
high confidence that wind gusts up to 50 mph will continue northeast
of Lake Erie through tonight. Winds will likely ramp up late tonight
into Tuesday morning east of Lake Ontario, and a wind advisory may
be needed. Gusty winds will continue elsewhere tonight, however
gusts will average 30 to 40 mph.
As the cold air deepens and the boundary layer remains well-mixed,
gusty winds will continue through Tuesday. Winds aloft will slowly
weaken and wind gusts will fall below 30 mph by Tuesday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring showers and the potential
for severe thunderstorms Monday.
A strong cold front will move across the region this afternoon.
Ahead of the front, warm, moist air will be present and instability
is expected to develop through the daytime hours. Though instability
is expected to be weak, favorable shear profiles will support a
possible narrow line of strong to severe convection along the
frontal boundary during the afternoon. HREF members are in good
agreement that after 18z, a line of convection will be moving east
across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. The primary
hazard will be damaging winds, although an isolated tornado will be
possible. SPC Day 1 Outlook highlights most of the Genesee Valley
and Finger Lakes in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. Another
factor with this convection will be anafrontal rain that rides
northward along the front that is slowing down across central NY
through early evening. A moisture laden airmass with large
scale forcing will support heavy rain from the Finger Lakes
region to the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Rainfall amounts of
a half inch to three quarters of an inch are expected.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Cold weather returns with a possible round of
synoptic wet snow late today and this evening, quickly followed by
developing lake effect snow later tonight through Tuesday night.
The eastward progress of a strong cold front will slow later this
afternoon into this evening while also taking on anabatic
characteristics. The deceleration of the front will be owed to a few
reasons: The sharpening of the mid and upper trough while also
taking on a slightly negative tilt as it crosses the lower Great
Lakes region, in tandem with a developing wave of low pressure
riding north along the eastward-advancing cold front as it moves
across western and north central New York. The combination of these
factors will support a considerable boost in QPF east of the Genesee
Valley this afternoon through the first half of tonight, some of
which will fall as snow. With the front becoming increasingly
anabatic, a fair amount of the synoptic QPF will fall on the cooler
side of the front, with confidence increasing for a quick few to
possibly several inches of heavy wet snow across a good portion of
the area late today through this evening. The changeover to wet snow
may occur toward the tail end of the commute west of the Genesee
Valley, including the Buffalo Metro area, however any accumulation
through 8 PM should be less than a slushy inch.
A sharply colder airmass will quickly build into the region behind
the cold front second half of tonight through Tuesday night with
850mb temperatures plunging into the -16C to -20C range by Tuesday
morning. Lingering synoptic moisture within the large eastern CONUS
trough combined with steep low level lapse rates and lake-induced
equilibrium levels rising to 7-9 kft right through a saturated DGZ
will be supportive of lake effect snow development from later
tonight through Tuesday night. An initial W to WSW flow will send
lake bands E to ENE of the lakes later tonight through Tuesday
morning, before a subtle shift in the winds to WNW will shift the
bands more ESE of the lakes for later Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night. Confidence remains moderate to high for impactful
accumulations with the Winter weather Advisory continuing for
Jefferson and Lewis counties tonight through Tuesday with the WSW
flow regime and for Oswego County through Tuesday night to account
for the subtle WNW shift. N.Cayuga may eventually need an advisory,
but that would not start until Tuesday afternoon. While
accumulations are likely east of Lake Erie during the same time,
more uncertainty remains here. Ice coverage has decreased
significantly as seen on satellite imagery yesterday, however not
sure if models are assimilating this data in yet. Increased snow
amounts area wide, and will let oncoming shift have another look and
reassess.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A deep area of low pressure is over Lower Michigan this
morning. A very strong 70 knot low- level jet is located across
the eastern Great Lakes region. Low level wind shear and strong
wind gusts are expected through mid- morning. A strong cold
front will cross the region from west to east between 15-21z
today. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly
east of KROC as the cold front encounters increasing instability
and favorable shear profiles.
Southwest winds with gusts up to 45 knots are expected behind
the front, however there will likely be a lull in the winds after
the initial frontal passage. Cold air advection and a uniform
westerly flow will support winds to ramp up late afternoon through
tonight with the strongest gusts near the lakeshores and across the
Niagara Frontier.
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with the
frontal passage today. A dramatic drop in temperatures is expected
and rain will change over to snow from west to east across western
and north central NY through evening. Gusty winds and snow will
create blowing snow at the terminals. Snow will linger east of the
Lakes overnight.
Outlook...
Monday night...IFR in snow; remaining windy.
Tuesday and Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with chances for snow east and then
southeast of both lakes. Breezy. Any IFR conditions will be
localized to within lake effect snow bands.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR with lingering mainly rain showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong area of low pressure will cross the Central Great Lakes
through tonight, bringing a return to gale force winds. A strong
cold front will move across the Lakes between mid-morning through
afternoon and southwest-west winds will ramp up and persist at gale
force on the eastern end of Lake Erie through tonight and across
Lake Ontario through Tuesday.
Winds will diminish through mid-week bringing a period of light
winds and small waves.
Please note, most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>003-010>012.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ004>006-013-
014-020-021.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for NYZ006.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ007-008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ040-041.
Gale Warning from noon today to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
LOZ042.
Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday
for LOZ042-062.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
LOZ043>045.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Tuesday
for LOZ043>045-063>065.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HSK/JM
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK
NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion
