WX in text

172
FXUS61 KBUF 040643
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
143 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal change to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light lake effect and upslope snow will continue south of Lake
Ontario through Thursday morning.

2) Light to moderate snowfall for Friday with a passing clipper and
cold front.

3) Well below normal temperatures and dangerous wind chills return
for the weekend as Arctic airmass moves into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light lake effect and upslope snow will continue
south of Lake Ontario through Thursday morning.

Light to brief moderate lake effect and upslope snow will continue
through Thursday morning, mainly south of Lake Ontario. With a
mostly west to northwest flow over the area, lake effect snow off
Lake Ontario will continue through Thursday morning as shortwave
troughs pass over the region. Snow showers will also develop over
the higher terrain areas east of Lake Erie as upsloping develops
with the shortwave troughs move through. Brief dry air intrusions
and weak ridging will allow for lake snow to weaken or dissipate at
times as well during this period, particularly later in the day
today into this evening.

Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches is forecasted southeast of Lake
Ontario where the greatest lake effect snow is expected in Wayne and
Northern Cayuga counties. Snow accumulations will be mostly minor
with an inch or less expected for most areas. Snowfall of an inch or
so will be possible for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie where
upsloping is more favorable.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light to moderate snowfall for Friday with a passing
clipper and cold front.

On Friday, a shortwave trough embedded within the larger trough over
the region will track southeast across the Great Lakes. At the same
time a sfc low and cold front associated with the trough will
approach the region. Out ahead of the approaching sfc low, snow will
start to overspread the area during the morning hours on Friday,
with mainly light snow expected. Widespread steady light snow will
continue into the evening hours on Friday ahead of the systems
approaching cold front. As the cold front tracks through the area
during the later evening hours, a period of moderate to heavier snow
will be possible along the front. A widespread snowfall of 1 to 4
inches is possible, with some higher terrain areas receiving the
higher end of that snowfall range. Winds will also start to increase
on Friday afternoon as the pressure gradient over the region
tightens, with winds continuing with and behind the frontal passage
as cold air advection begins. The combination of the increasing
winds and snow will cause blowing and drifting snow and reductions
to visibility. There will be a brief uptick in winds along and right
behind the strong front as it pushes through the area during the
late evening and into the first half of the overnight hours.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Well below normal temperatures and dangerous wind
chills return for the weekend as Arctic airmass moves into the
region.

There is moderate to high confidence in dangerous cold this weekend,
with an increased risk of frostbite and hypothermia. A round of
arctic air is expected this weekend with 850 mb temperatures
plunging down to -23C to -28C. Bitter temperatures and brisk winds
will result in dangerous wind chill values Friday night through
Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lingering lake snow early this morning along and just south of the
Lake Ontario shoreline will push inland and dissipate as a trough
drops south. Light snow is found at or near most of the TAF sites
and will linger for the next few hours before the snow scatters out.
With the snow and lake clouds, MVFR to low end VFR CIGs and VSBY
expected, especially within the snow showers.

The back edge of the snow and clouds is moving south across Lake
Ontario and will clear through the area early this morning. There
will be some improvements to CIGs as the edge of the clouds tracks
through the area, but some additional cloud development is possible
after this initial clearing. CIGs and VSBY should improve to VFR for
most terminals for at least a few hours before CIGs drop back down
to a mixture of MVFR/VFR. For the higher terrain areas lower end
MVFR and periods of IFR CIGs can be expected for most of the TAF
cycle with some improvement possible this morning for a few hours.

Mainly MVFR CIGs will continue for the day today with some breaks in
the clouds at times bringing flight levels to VFR as a weak ridge
quickly crosses the area today. Any morning snow showers should
scatter out this morning. Light lake effect snow is expected to
remain for areas southeast of Lake Ontario, where MVFR CIGs/VSBY
will linger within the snow, with some brief IFR CIGs/VSBY possible
at times as well.

Snow showers will linger southeast of Lake Ontario into the evening,
and expand along the south shore of Lake Ontario as a shortwave
trough crosses the region. Increasing clouds with the passing trough
and off the lake will brings CIGs down to low end MVFR and periods
of IFR for all TAF sites. Areas across the higher terrain can expect
more persistent IFR CIGs through the night. Snow showers along and
south of Lake Ontario will lowers VSBYs and CIGs at times, possibly
down to IFR.

Outlook...

Thursday...IFR in lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario,
otherwise VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow showers.

Friday through Friday night...IFR or below in widespread snow and
blowing snow.

Saturday through Sunday...Areas of IFR in lake effect snow showers
south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
The next period of more windy conditions will develop Thursday night
and continue Friday through Saturday as a strong arctic cold front
crosses the eastern Great Lakes, producing higher end Small Craft
Advisory conditions that peak Friday through Friday night on Lake
Ontario. The airmass will be quite cold, and will likely result in
freezing spray on Lake Ontario as well.

Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now
ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ004-005.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/Hitchcock/SW/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JM/SW/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/JM

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion