WX in text

392
FXUS61 KBUF 140827
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
327 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all remaining
counties of western and north-central New York, for the
potential of 3-6" of snow. Rain will transition over to snow
this evening and tonight with light to moderate accumulations
expected through Thursday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain transitions over to snow this evening and tonight, with
light to moderate accumulations expected through Thursday
morning.

2) Morning widespread snow to start the day on Thursday will
transition to lake effect snow through the day.

3) Well below normal temperatures expected through Thursday
night

4) Active and and cold weather returns starting late Friday and
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)...Rain transitions over to snow this evening and
tonight, with light to moderate accumulations expected through
Thursday morning.

Relatively mild conditions with a very brief period of quiet weather
will exist this morning ahead of the next impactful system.

A complex scenario will unfold this afternoon-evening/tonight
as a potent shortwave drops southeast across the upper Great
Lakes, and then begins to interact with another shortwave diving
through the base of the broader trough. As these two feature
begin to phase...a surface low pressure will form and begin to
deepen across central Pennsylvania along a tightening
(frontogenesis) thermal gradient. That said...the `position` of
the thermal gradient and subsequent `track` of the surface low
will determine overall synoptic snowfall amounts across our
region. As it stands...surface temperatures across much of
western New York will be suspect initially which will `likely`
support p-type in the liquid form. That said...as the lower
column of the atmosphere dynamically cools we should gradually
see a transition over to snow sometime this evening. An even
tricker forecast will unfold east of Rochester into the North
Country tonight. The surface low is advertised to pass just to
the east of the forecast area across central New York. With H850
T`s only -3C to -5C...this would suggest p-type will likely be
in the liquid form or a mix of rain-snow at lower elevations.
We might `not` see the transition over to snow for lower
elevation east of Rochester until the later portion of tonight.
So don`t be surprised if it`s just plain rain for all of this
evening for lower elevations. As the low begins to pass, SLR
will ramp up to 15:1 to 18:1 and the snow will become less
dense. We even could see a decent band of snow work from west to
east with the Arctic front overnight. It is at this point we
will see a transition to all snow as the low passes and pulls in
a much colder airmass. Given latest guidance...have enough
confidence (moderate) to issue Winter Weather Advisories for all
remaining counties despite some lingering uncertainties. Look
for general snowfall amounts of 3-6" but keep in mind the higher
end of this amount will all depend on the transition from rain
to snow.

KEY MESSAGE 2)... Morning widespread snow to start the day on
Thursday will transition to lake effect snow through the day.

Widespread snow associated with a passing sfc low will push
northeast behind the departing sfc low through the morning on
Thursday. In the systems wake, with a trough/midlevel low over the
region and temperatures aloft cooling to sub -15C, lake enhanced and
then lake effect snow will develop east to southeast of the lakes.
Lake effect snow will linger the longest southeast of Lake Ontario
into Friday morning. Some uncertainty still remains with the lake
bands off of Lake Erie and the upstream connections with the
northwest flow. Guidance keeps some of the higher snowfall amounts
south of Chautauqua County into NW PA, but any shift in current
thinking could push higher snow amounts farther north where there is
a high end Winter Weather Advisory in place. Snowfall off of Lake
Erie for Thursday is expected to be in the 2 to 5 inch range, with
some higher amounts over the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge.
Snowfall off of Lake Ontario is expected to be in the 4 to 7 inch
range for Thursday into Thursday night with the greatest amounts
expected from Wayne to Oswego County. Outside of the lake effect
snowfall, a general 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible for most
areas with the widespread snowfall that will linger into the morning
on Thursday.

Winter Weather Advisories are in place for ALL of western and north
central New York through at least Thursday morning, with some
advisories lasting into Friday morning for lake effect snow. Details
on these can be seen below in the WWA section.

KEY MESSAGE 3)...Well below normal temperatures expected
through Thursday night

Behind an arctic front that pushes through the region late Wednesday
and early Thursday, temperatures will drop to well below normal
through Thursday night. Temperatures in the teens to near 20 are
expected for Thursday afternoon and single digits to low teens are
expected for overnight lows. Wind chill values in the single digits
to as low as around -10F will be possible into Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 4)...Active and cold weather returns starting late
Friday and this weekend.

An active period of snowy and colder weather will return starting
late Friday and this weekend. Large scale troughing along with
passing shortwave troughs and sfc lows is expected to continue into
the middle of next week, resulting in periods of snow along with
cold temperatures. Periods of widespread synoptic snow from passing
systems will be followed by lake effect snow. Most of the widespread
snow should be generally limited to half a day at a time as most of
the sfc lows look to be more of the quick moving clipper variety.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will be found at area terminals early this
morning. A developing low pressure system will bring deteriorating
flight conditions today, with cigs lowering to MVFR then widespread
IFR this evening.

Low pressure will pass by the region with rain transitioning to snow
tonight. Expect widespread IFR condition across area terminals.


Outlook...

Thursday...IFR with widespread light snow in the morning, then
MVFR/IFR with localized lake effect east and southeast of the lakes.

Friday through Sunday...MVFR/IFR with snow showers at times.

&&

.MARINE...
A low pressure system will pass by the Lower Lakes tonight pulling a
strong cold front through the region. Winds may diminish a bit
today, before increasing again this evening-tonight out of the west-
northwest. Small Craft conditions will remain on the lakes through
the rest of the week and even well through the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ001-002-010-011-021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ003-013-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion